IMF cuts China 2026 economic growth forecast to 4.4%

SynopsisThe IMF on Tuesday lowered its forecast for Chinese economic growth this year to 4.4 percent, despite reduced US tariffs and stimulus measures aimed at mitigating the impact of the Middle East conflict. The Washington-based organisation said "lower US effective tariff rates on Chinese goods, and stimulus measures offset the negative impact of the shock induced by the Middle East conflict" on the world's second-largest economy.Listen to this article in summarized formatIMF on US-Iran war: Rising costs, helpless central banks will create a bumpy ride for nationsTokyo: The IMF on Tuesday lowered its forecast for Chinese economic growth this year to 4.4 percent, despite reduced US tariffs and stimulus measures aimed at mitigating the impact of the Middle East conflict.The new projection, published in the International Monetary Fund's latest World Economic Outlook report, is slightly lower than its January forecast of 4.5 percent and well off last year's official five percent expansion.Also Read: IMF cuts global growth outlook for 2026, warns of potential recession if Iran war worsensThe Washington-based organisation said "lower US effective tariff rates on Chinese goods, and stimulus measures offset the negative impact of the shock induced by the Middle East conflict" on the world's second-largest economy.Exports, the engine of China's growth, remained robust, it said.But the country's overall economic outlook remains bleak, with growth expected to slow to 4.0 percent in 2027 owing to "structural headwinds", the Fund said.It cited "a grinding slowdown in the housing sector, a declining labour force, decreasing returns on investment, and slower productivity growth".The IMF also cut its 2026 growth forecast for emerging and developing Asia to 4.9 percent from 5.0 percent -- a significant slowdown from the region's 5.5 percent expansion recorded last year."In several South and Southeast Asian economies, disruptions in the Middle East are expected to reduce tourism and remittance inflows, thereby weakening domestic demand," the Fund said.Among those being hit was the Philippines, with the IMF cutting its outlook for growth by 1.5 percentage points as war shocks compound the negative effects of a weaker-than-expected 2025 result.Also Read: IMF cuts eurozone full-year growth forecast to 1.1%But India's economy is now tipped to grow 6.5 percent this year, a rise of 0.1 percentage point from the previous forecast, with the Fund saying the reduction in US tariffs -- from 50 percent to 10 percent -- will soften the impact of the Middle East conflict.Reflecting the worldwide disruption of energy supplies caused by the war in the Middle East, global economic growth for 2026 was revised downwards by 0.2 points to 3.1 percent.( Originally published on Apr 14, 2026 )Read More News on